Bernstein Sees ‘Strong Tailwinds’ for Robinhood as World Cup Drives $4.8B Prediction Market Volume

Bernstein analysts said Robinhood could see “strong tailwinds” as prediction-market activity surged during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup.

Daily volumes rose from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. played Paraguay. The June 12 figure already exceeds the $1.4 billion traded during last season’s Super Bowl, according to Bernstein.

Bernstein Sees Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue Rising 286%

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in a Monday client note that prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch. Bernstein projects the segment’s revenue will rise from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% year-over-year increase.

Bernstein said the $586 million forecast would account for roughly 17% of Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue and about 10% of total company revenue in 2026. The firm expects prediction markets to be the largest incremental driver of transaction-based revenue growth for the company this year.

Rothera Partnership Gives Robinhood a CFTC-Licensed Edge

Bernstein pointed to Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse co-owned with Susquehanna International Group, as a key differentiator.

According to Bernstein, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days since its May 28 launch, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts accounting for nearly all of that volume.

The firm said distribution is Robinhood’s advantage in the space, citing the company’s user base and pricing, including a $0.01 commission per contract and a fee reduction of up to 50% for Gold subscribers.

Bernstein also noted a broadening competitive set, pointing to Kalshi’s $1 billion in volume within its first week of launching CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies. Robinhood shares closed at $93.19 on the Nasdaq on Friday.

Prediction Market Momentum Spreads Beyond Robinhood

Bernstein also pointed to Polymarket’s rollout of private company event contracts as part of a broader expansion of contract types and trading venues across the sector. The firm said this expansion is contributing to higher engagement during the World Cup period.

Bernstein previously called the World Cup a “watershed moment” for prediction markets, naming DraftKings and Coinbase as other publicly traded companies positioned to benefit from tournament-driven volume.

The firm estimates the tournament will drive more than $3 billion in incremental handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer volume uplift across the prediction markets sector.