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Key Takeaways
- The SEC-Ripple lawsuit suppressed XRP’s price during the 2021 bull cycle, keeping it from a potential $13.40 peak
- Bitcoin’s historical growth multiples applied to XRP suggest a current-cycle hypothetical valuation near $24.50
- Some analysts believe XRP could eventually decouple from crypto market cycles, driven by utility-based transaction volume
The years-long legal fight between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission prevented XRP from fully participating in the 2021 cryptocurrency bull run, according to a new analysis from market commentator Jungle Inc.
Jungle Inc. Argues XRP Missed Its 2021 Cycle
In a post on X, Jungle Inc. stated that XRP “never got its 2021 cycle,” contending that the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple arrived just as Bitcoin and the broader crypto market entered a powerful rally.
While many digital assets surged to new highs during that period, XRP spent much of the cycle navigating legal challenges that clouded investor sentiment and limited market participation. With the lawsuit largely resolved, the commentator argued that XRP may now have a clearer path to price discovery than it did during the previous market cycle.
Bitcoin Growth Model Points to a Gap Between Actual and Hypothetical XRP Peaks
A research note from Jungle Inc. Crypto explored a hypothetical scenario using Bitcoin’s historical growth multiples. The study applied Bitcoin’s 3.49x gain from 2017 to 2021 and its 1.83x gain from 2021 to 2025 to XRP’s 2018 peak of $3.84.
Under that model, XRP could have reached roughly $13.40 during the 2021 cycle, and the same calculation produced a current-cycle valuation near $24.50. By comparison, XRP peaked at $1.96 in 2021 and approximately $3.66 in 2025.
The report noted that the hypothetical $24.50 level stands nearly 6.7 times above XRP’s actual 2025 peak, though the study did not present the figure as a price forecast. It was framed instead as a comparison of the different trajectories taken by Bitcoin and XRP over the same timeframe.
Analyst Proposes Utility-Driven Pricing Model for XRP Valuation
An analyst posting on X argued that XRP may eventually decouple from traditional crypto market cycles, with future value driven more by utility than by speculative trading. The analyst described the concept as “utility based pricing,” in which transaction volume drives valuation rather than exchange trading activity.
Under that framework, widespread use of XRPL infrastructure could separate XRP’s performance from Bitcoin and Ethereum, with settlement activity across global financial networks playing a larger role than market sentiment.
XRP Declined From Its January 2026 Peak Toward the $1.04 Region
Further analysis from X Finance Bull examined XRP’s current chart structure, noting that XRP was trapped below the $0.70 to $0.80 range for nearly two years before breaking higher in late 2024. Momentum later faded, and XRP declined from its January 2026 peak toward the $1.04 region. The analyst described that level as an important support area.
