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Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant identifies $53,600 as a historically significant Bitcoin support level but stops short of calling it a cycle bottom.
- Total Bitcoin demand dropped 652,000 BTC last week, with 30-day spot ETF demand growth turning negative 74,000 BTC.
- Analysts Crypto Rover and Ali Martinez flag additional support zones near $50,000 and $48,300 using long-term trendline and Investor Price metrics.
CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno has identified $53,600, derived from Bitcoin’s realized price, as a historically significant support threshold, while cautioning that the level should not be read as a confirmed cycle low amid ongoing selling pressure. Moreno described the figure as a valuation benchmark that has provided support during prior major downturns, but said current conditions do not yet point to a definitive bottom for the current cycle.
CryptoQuant Puts $53,600 Realized Price Level on Watch as Potential Support Floor
CryptoQuant identified $53,600 as a potential downside floor based on Bitcoin’s realized price, a metric that reflects the average price at which each Bitcoin last changed hands on-chain. Moreno said the level has historically supported price during major market downturns, while stopping short of calling it a definitive bottom. He also noted that realized holder losses remain well below the levels typically associated with capitulation events.
With Bitcoin trading around $63,000 at the time of CryptoQuant’s report, the asset sat roughly 9% above the $53,600 threshold. CryptoQuant stated that the absence of panic-selling conditions seen in previous cycle lows means the level should be treated as a potential floor rather than evidence that the cycle bottom is already in place.
Demand Metrics Show 652,000 BTC Drop and Negative ETF Inflows
Alongside its price analysis, CryptoQuant reported a sharp deterioration in Bitcoin demand. Total demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, while 30-day spot ETF demand growth declined to negative 74,000 BTC, according to CryptoQuant. Moreno told The Block.
“Historically, it’s a level that would confirm a bottom. It doesn’t mean that we necessarily hit it, but it is still a possibility, especially with bitcoin’s demand weakness.”
Moreno added that a true recovery requires a “constructive demand recovery, a condition not yet visible in the data.”
Crypto Rover Flags Long-Term Trendline Return, Says Correction May Not Be Over
Crypto analyst Crypto Rover highlighted a long-term trendline that Bitcoin has returned to after respecting it for nearly a decade. According to Rover, previous touches of the trendline were followed by rallies of 1,300%, 1,900%, 1,900%, and 700% in successive market cycles. Despite Bitcoin returning to that trendline, Rover said he does not believe the correction is necessarily over.
Rover noted that while Bitcoin has reached the short-term holder realized price near $74,000, it has not yet tested the broader realized price level around $53,600 or the long-term holder realized price near $50,000. He pointed out that previous cycle bottoms traded below realized price levels before a sustained recovery began.
Ali Martinez Identifies $48,300 Accumulation Zone Using Investor Price Metric
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified $48,300 as a significant accumulation area based on Bitcoin’s Investor Price metric. Martinez had previously flagged $53,900 and $43,150 as major support zones based on Bitcoin’s MVRV bands.
