Hayes Adopts Defensive Crypto Stance as AI Stocks Divert Liquidity

Arthur Hayes has moved to a risk-off position in cryptocurrency markets, citing concerns that capital is flowing into artificial intelligence stocks rather than digital assets. In an interview, the former BitMEX chief said Bitcoin has not responded to liquidity growth as he previously anticipated. He attributed the underperformance to capital flows into AI stocks, upcoming equity offerings, elevated energy costs, and Federal Reserve policy constraints.

Hayes Says AI Stocks Have Absorbed Capital That Might Otherwise Have Reached Bitcoin

Hayes argued that AI and AI-linked companies have absorbed significant capital since the public launch of ChatGPT, including through debt financing. In his essay, he estimated that hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies issued roughly $1.5 trillion in debt between November 2022 and mid-2026, matching almost exactly the $1.5 trillion rise in M2 money supply over the same period. 

“AI sucked up all created dollars,” Hayes wrote. “Bitcoin never had a chance.”

Hayes noted that Bitcoin rose from around $15,000 after the FTX collapse to roughly $125,000 by October 2025, but said AI equities still outperformed during that stretch, citing Nvidia’s 11x move as one example. He said investors found stronger returns in AI stocks than in crypto over the same window.

Planned AI Equity Listings Pose Further Risk to Crypto Capital Flows, Hayes Says

Hayes identified the OpenAI IPO, SpaceX listing plans, and Anthropic’s expected market debut as central risks in his outlook. Hayes said the scale of those offerings raised questions about whether markets could absorb the additional supply without drawing capital from other sectors, including crypto. 

Hayes also said new share issuance and unlock schedules may create portfolio rebalancing pressure, with capital potentially moving away from existing technology names and other risk assets.

Fed Rate Cut Delays and Energy Costs Add to Bearish Macro Backdrop

Hayes said the Federal Reserve may not have sufficient political room to ease policy quickly if inflation remains elevated, and cautioned investors against building strategies around expectations of fast monetary support. 

He added that higher oil and power costs could raise the cost of computing, which he described as an additional risk for AI companies. Hayes also cited political risk, saying public concern about job losses could make artificial intelligence a campaign issue if voters link AI expansion with economic pressure.

Hayes Reassesses Portfolio and Flags Technical Risk in Privacy Coins

Hayes said his risk-off crypto stance followed a direct reassessment of his portfolio. He said he had previously held several risk assets but that liquidity conditions no longer supported that exposure. 

As part of that reassessment, Hayes flagged a specific risk in the privacy coin segment, discussing Zcash specifically and saying a recent vulnerability raised questions about technical assurance in privacy-focused assets. He said privacy coins need stronger technical assurances to withstand scrutiny from large technology companies, government surveillance, and AI-based analysis tools.

Hayes said that if markets face stress and policymakers respond with additional stimulus, Bitcoin could benefit from the resulting liquidity. In the meantime, he said the crypto market may remain under pressure while AI stocks, major IPOs, energy costs, and policy uncertainty dominate investor attention.