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Key Takeaways
- U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on Polymarket’s political markets, ahead of Hong Kong’s $422 million
- Geopolitical markets drew 46% of U.S. volume, while elections drew only 16%, far below platform-wide averages
- U.S. wallets picked winning outcomes 81.9% of the time, nearly identical to the 80.3% rate for all other wallets
Wallets linked to the United States traded $571 million in notional value on Polymarket’s political markets over the past 12 months, more than any other country, according to on-chain analysis firm Allium. The activity came even though Polymarket blocks U.S. users and cannot legally serve them.
U.S. Wallets Led All Countries Despite The Block
Allium’s report found U.S.-linked wallets outpaced every other country tracked, ahead of Hong Kong’s $422 million in political-market volume over the same period. Polymarket restricts access for U.S. users by IP address because it lacks the licensing to operate in the country.
Allium said the block has limited effect because Polymarket runs on crypto infrastructure. Trades settle through a wallet and stablecoins rather than a bank or broker, leaving no account for a regulator to close and no payment for a bank to intercept. A VPN paired with an existing crypto wallet is enough to bypass the geographic restriction.
Allium’s country tags are drawn from on-chain wallet behavior rather than IP data, which is why the same VPN that evades Polymarket’s block does not conceal a wallet’s U.S. ties in the firm’s analysis. The company said it could attribute a country to only about 6% of wallets active in political markets, and described the resulting figures as directional rather than exact. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment ahead of U.S. market hours.
Geopolitics, Not Elections, Drew The Bulk Of U.S. Money
Geopolitical markets accounted for 46% of U.S. notional volume, compared with 36% platform-wide. Elections drew just 16% from U.S. wallets, versus 32% across the platform overall, according to Allium.
Five of the U.S. cohort’s twelve largest markets were tied to the Iran war. The single largest, at $20.8 million, was a novelty contract on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit.
Those categories fall outside what regulated U.S. platforms typically offer. Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S.-compliant arm focus mainly on economic data, interest rate decisions and elections, leaving foreign conflict and novelty markets to the offshore platform.
U.S. Traders Showed No Edge In Picking Winners
On markets that have already resolved, U.S. wallets backed the winning outcome 81.9% of the time, according to Allium, compared with 80.3% for all other wallets. Returns for positions held to resolution were nearly identical between the two groups.
U.S. wallets did trade with more conviction at times. At one point, they placed 53% of their volume on a potential U.S. invasion of Iran, while the rest of the market held closer to 26% on the same contract. That higher conviction did not translate into better outcomes, Allium found.
Allium’s report concluded the U.S. block redirected activity rather than eliminated it. According to the firm, the largest concentration of American political betting now sits offshore, visible on-chain but outside the reach of U.S. financial oversight, with demand concentrated in the market categories domestic platforms are restricted from listing.
