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Bitcoin’s rebound toward $66,500 has revived debate over whether the token has already bottomed near $60,000 or still faces deeper downside after months of trading far below its October record.
Bitcoin reached an all-time peak near $126,200 in early October before losing more than half its value during the winter selloff. The latest move has put several downside targets back in focus, from the $60,000 area to deeper bear-market models below $40,000.
Armstrong Sees $60K as First Floor
Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong said this week that Bitcoin may have already bottomed near $60,000, while adding that no one can know the cycle low with certainty. His view is based on Bitcoin’s four-year market rhythm, where sharp post-peak declines have often been followed by long accumulation periods.
Bitcoin recently rebounded toward $66,500 after a ceasefire framework between the US and Iran eased oil-market stress and triggered a short squeeze across crypto. Coinglass data showed about $555 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with short positions making up most of the total.
$66.5K Rebound Keeps $60K Support Intact
The rebound kept Bitcoin above the $60,000 area for now. It did not settle the larger bottom debate. Bitcoin remains far below the October high, and ETF demand has been uneven after several sessions of outflows.
A sustained hold above $60,000 would strengthen the case that the washout is over. A break below that level would shift attention toward deeper support zones.
LMAX Sees Support Near $49K
Other market watchers are still allowing for deeper losses. LMAX Group analyst Joel Kruger said many capitulation signals are already in place, including oversold daily technicals and weak sentiment.
He expects any further downside to be supported above the August 2024 low near $49,000. That leaves traders with a wide range to watch. The $60,000 level remains the first floor, while the high-$40,000 area is the next major zone if sellers regain control.
NDR and Stifel See $31K to $38K Risk
Lower downside models are also circulating. Ned Davis Research said Bitcoin could fall toward $31,000 if the current decline develops into a full crypto winter, based on past peak-to-trough bear-market patterns.
Stifel has also warned that Bitcoin could drop to about $38,000 if the drawdown reaches levels seen in earlier bear markets. Those forecasts keep the market split between cycle-bottom buyers and analysts who think the October peak still has more damage to unwind.
For now, the main levels are clear: bulls need to defend the $60,000 zone, while a break lower would bring $49,000, $38,000 and $31,000 back into the market’s downside map.
