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Key Takeaways
- Cantor Fitzgerald says Bitcoin’s bear market may be nearing its end, with historical cycles pointing to a possible October bottom.
- The bank attributes the selloff to ETF outflows, elevated rates, and weaker risk appetite.
- Cantor highlighted digital asset treasury firms, initiating coverage of Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies with overweight ratings.
Cantor Fitzgerald said in a Tuesday report that crypto markets are entering the late stage of the current bear cycle, with Bitcoin’s historical trading patterns pointing to a possible bottom in the coming months. The bank urged investors to shift focus toward networks with durable value accrual rather than speculative activity.
Historical Cycles Suggest Possible October Low, Cantor Says
Analysts led by Gareth Gacetta wrote that the current downturn could be nearing its end based on patterns from prior cycles.
“Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback.”
As of June 10, Bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down about 51%. Across the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, a pattern that, if repeated, would put the current cycle’s low around late October.
Cantor cautioned that the model is not a precise timing tool given macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks. The bank said crypto’s reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing, though it did not treat the projection as a firm prediction. Bitcoin was trading around $59,500 at the time of publication.
Cantor Attributes Selloff to ETF Outflows and Rate Pressure
Crypto markets have struggled in recent months, with Bitcoin falling more than 50% from its late-2025 peak after a sharp selloff in June. Cantor attributed the decline to persistent exchange-traded fund outflows, elevated interest rates and weaker risk appetite across markets.
Ether and most major altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin during the downturn, the report said, though decentralized finance and tokenization have shown relative resilience compared with the broader market.
Bank Argues Usage Alone Does Not Drive Token Value
Cantor said that while crypto adoption continues to expand across stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, onchain credit and DeFi, usage growth alone does not translate directly into token value. The bank argued that durable winners will be networks that convert activity into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand.
The report named Hyperliquid as the clearest example of fee-driven token economics, pointing to its HYPE buyback-and-burn mechanism. Cantor described Bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum as the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance.
Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash each have differentiated strengths, according to the report, but still need to demonstrate they can convert ecosystem growth into lasting token demand.
Digital Asset Treasury Firms Seen as an Overlooked Theme
Cantor also highlighted digital asset treasury companies as an investment theme it sees as overlooked. The bank argued that the strongest firms are moving beyond passive token holding into active operations that generate yield, build infrastructure and provide institutional access to digital assets.
The bank initiated coverage of two digital asset treasury companies, Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies, with overweight ratings. It set price targets of $7.90 for Forward Industries and $0.90 for Cypherpunk Technologies.
