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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin fell to $59,200 before recovering to around $60,700, with major tokens like XRP, Ether, and Solana posting weekly losses of up to 9%.
- Crypto decoupled from an AI stock rebound, with ETF outflows, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar continuing to weigh on digital assets.
- Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week moving average, a level historically linked to prolonged downturns lasting six to nine months.
Bitcoin fell to around $59,200 on Wednesday before recovering to approximately $60,700 on Thursday, declining 5.4% on the week, even as AI-linked equities staged a sharp rebound. ETF outflows, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a seven-month-high U.S. dollar are driving the pressure on digital assets, according to FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich. Digital assets did not track the equity recovery.
Bitcoin Slides, Then Steadies, as Stocks Bounce
Bitcoin was down 2.9% over 24 hours and 5.4% on the week as of Thursday. Losses were steeper across major tokens. Ether dropped 2.8% to $1,616, posting a 7.9% weekly decline. XRP slid to $1.07, down 9.2% on the week. Solana fell to $68. Dogecoin and Hyperliquid’s HYPE were the hardest hit over seven days, losing 11.9% and 11.7% respectively. Tron was the only major token to gain, up 1.9% for the week.
AI-linked equities bounced sharply overnight. Micron, the largest U.S. memory chip maker, surged around 15% after its sales forecast exceeded Wall Street estimates. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.8%, South Korea’s Kospi gained as much as 6%, and Brent crude fell below $73 a barrel as oil flows resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. Digital assets did not track the move.
ETF Outflows, Fed Tone, and a Stronger Dollar Drive the Pressure
The break below $60,000 reflects continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift, and a U.S. dollar that climbed to a seven-month high, according to Kuptsikevich. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced assets more expensive for foreign buyers and tends to pull capital out of risk trades.
Kuptsikevich identified $61,800 to $62,000 as the next meaningful test, a price range with clustered pending orders that could either force short sellers to cover positions and push the price higher, or act as resistance and cap any recovery. If support breaks, he said $55,000 is a plausible cycle low, and he advised traders to prioritize risk management over directional bets.
Bitcoin Nears 200-Week Moving Average After Three Prior Drops Led to Prolonged Weakness
FxPro flagged a longer-term concern. Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week moving average, a measure of the average price over roughly four years and a key long-term trend line.
The last three times Bitcoin dropped to that level, the weakness persisted. Prices stayed depressed for around nine months following the 2015 breakdown, six months after the 2018 collapse, and approximately 18 months after the 2022 decline, according to FxPro. The firm said the pattern suggests an extended period of suppressed prices rather than a brief dip.
Inflation Data Offers the Next Catalyst
U.S. inflation figures due later Thursday, in the form of the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, represent the market’s next near-term test. A higher-than-expected reading would reinforce the hawkish Fed stance and dollar strength currently weighing on crypto. A softer print could ease both.
The oil and geopolitical headlines that shaped crypto trading earlier in June have given way to ETF outflows, according to Kuptsikevich, who identified the Fed’s hawkish stance and dollar strength as the primary near-term headwinds.
