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Galaxy Research lowered its estimate of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% on June 5, citing a shrinking Senate floor calendar and a lack of public progress in negotiations rather than concerns about the bill’s substance.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, published the downgrade on June 26 in an X post.
Calendar, Not Content, Drives the Downgrade
“The downgrade is primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill,” Thorn wrote. “The absence of news is itself the news.”
The Clarity Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 ever since, with no floor date set, no motion to proceed scheduled, and no unified text combining the Banking and Agriculture committee versions. The Senate then entered an extended recess, with votes not expected again until July 13.
The bill still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text and a 60-vote threshold to advance. Beyond that, it requires a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and House action on whatever the Senate produces.
Thorn said Thune needs to announce floor time by early July at the latest. Without that, the path shifts to September, which he noted “runs directly into the midterm dynamics” that make scheduling controversial votes harder.
Trump’s SAVE Act Demand Adds Another Scheduling Fight
Competition for Senate floor time intensified on June 24 when Trump canceled the scheduled signing of a bipartisan housing bill that had already passed the House 358-32 and the Senate 85-5, conditioning his signature on Congress first passing the SAVE Act.
Thorn said that dispute injected another leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue, “thereby hurting the Clarity Act’s odds.” Other unfinished business competing for the same floor time includes FISA reauthorization and the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act.
Unresolved Ethics Fight Keeps Democratic Votes in Question
Beyond the calendar, several policy disputes remain unresolved. Ethics provisions continue to divide lawmakers after a conflict-of-interest amendment by Senator Chris Van Hollen failed 11-13 in committee.
Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have made enforceable ethics standards a condition of their support, and Thorn noted that at least two Republicans, Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, are expected to vote no, making Democratic crossover votes unavoidable.
A scheduling announcement from leadership within the next two weeks would push Galaxy’s estimate back toward 60% or higher, Thorn said. Continued silence into mid-July would push it lower. Polymarket traders currently assign about a 41% probability to the bill becoming law in 2026.
