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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin spot ETFs logged six straight weeks of net outflows through June 18, the longest redemption streak since their U.S. launch, with weekly outflows peaking at $1.72 billion on June 5.
- Analyst Jesse Olson set a $23,979 Bitcoin price target, framing it as possible only if the broader stock market crashes more than 50%.
- Long-term Bitcoin holders net added roughly 79,298 BTC by June 21, more than doubling their net position change over the same period ETF outflows continued.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their longest outflow streak since their U.S. launch, with six consecutive weeks of net redemptions running from mid-May through June 18. Separately, analyst Jesse Olson published a price target of $23,979 on social media, contingent on a stock market decline of more than 50%.
Six Weeks of ETF Outflows Surpass Previous Streaks
The six-week redemption run exceeds prior outflow streaks of five weeks each, recorded in early 2025 and early 2026, according to SoSoValue, making it the longest such stretch since the inception of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. Weekly outflows peaked at $1.72 billion on June 5 before declining to approximately $227 million by June 18, with the most recent week still in progress at the time of publication.
Olson published the $23,979 target on social media, framing it as contingent on a broader equity market collapse.
“Reaching $23,979 was not on my 2026 bingo card,” Olson wrote. “In my opinion, this only happens if the overall stock market crashes 50%+. (still at all-time highs). I don’t believe Bitcoin goes to zero and I will be looking to buy the right dip whenever the reversal happens.”
Morgan Stanley and Cowen Place Cycle Bottom Later, Not Imminent
Bitcoin’s six-month correlation with the S&P 500 sits at a moderate positive level, meaning a substantial equity selloff would likely carry Bitcoin lower alongside it. However, the conditions required to produce a 50% market decline remain contested among analysts.
Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson, writing on June 8, described a recent market selloff as “ultimately healthy” and maintained an 8,000 year-end target for the S&P 500, implying more than 8% upside from levels at the time of his note. Wilson cited strong earnings breadth and improving macroeconomic data as support for continued gains, and projected that weakness in artificial intelligence stocks would rotate flows into consumer discretionary, regional banks, and transportation sectors.
Separately, analyst Benjamin Cowen said the most likely Bitcoin cycle bottom falls around October 2026, adding that an earlier and deeper bottom would require a level of selling pressure not seen in prior Bitcoin cycles.
Liquidation Data on Binance Shows Heavier Short Exposure Above Current Price
Liquidation mapping on Binance shows long liquidation leverage near $2.41 billion against short liquidation leverage near $3.01 billion, with the larger position sitting on the short side above the current price.
Bitcoin’s long-term holder net position change, which tracks net accumulation or distribution among wallets holding coins for at least 155 days, fell to approximately 30,885 BTC on June 11 before rising to roughly 79,298 BTC by June 21, more than doubling over that ten-day span. Longer-duration holders added to positions over the same period that ETF outflows continued.
