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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin hit $65,500 on July 15 after softer PPI and CPI reports pushed the odds of a September rate hike down from 59% to 41.5%.
- Traders are watching $67,200 as key resistance, with a break above potentially opening the path toward $70,000.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $4.13 billion in net outflows over the trailing 30 days, and Bitcoin remains below its 200-day EMA.
Bitcoin climbed to $65,500 on July 15, its highest level since June 22, after back-to-back U.S. inflation reports came in cooler than expected and reduced traders’ expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The rally eased slightly by July 16, with Bitcoin trading near $64,830 as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities kept broader risk sentiment in check.
Back-to-Back Soft Inflation Reports Shift Rate Expectations
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June’s Producer Price Index at 5.5% year-over-year, below the 6.2% consensus forecast, with core PPI easing to 4.7% against a 5.2% estimate. The index fell 0.3% on the month, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2025, driven largely by a 1.4% drop in final demand goods prices as gasoline and other energy costs retreated.
The reading followed Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report, which also surprised to the downside: headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month, the largest such drop since April 2020, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core CPI held flat for the month and rose 2.6% annually, its softest reading since May 2020.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting climbing above 85% following the data, while odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting fell from roughly 59% to 41.5% over 24 hours, no longer the most likely single outcome.
Fed Chair Cautions Against Reading Too Much Into One Month
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, testifying before House lawmakers this week, said the June inflation data did not represent a “mission accomplished” moment and cautioned that available price measures remain imperfect gauges of underlying inflation.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian described the PPI figures as better than expected and said they would likely temper near-term market expectations for further rate increases. Trading commentary firm The Kobeissi Letter said inflation expectations continue to decline, pointing to falling rate-hike odds on prediction markets.
Traders Eye $67,200 as the Next Key Level
Trader Daan Crypto Trades identified $65,600 and $67,200 as the key resistance levels above Bitcoin’s current price, writing on X that a confirmed break above $67,200 would open the path toward the $70,000 region. He noted Bitcoin is approaching its Bull Market Support Band, a trend indicator now sitting near $70,000, and said a confirmed breakout and retest on the weekly chart would signal a longer-term bottom.
Separately, analyst Rekt Capital flagged that Bitcoin is nearing its 50-month exponential moving average, a level that has triggered price rejections during past bear market cycles.
Iran Tensions and a Chip Selloff Cap the Rally
Bitcoin’s advance came despite a fragile geopolitical backdrop. President Trump said last week that a prior ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran had ended, and the two countries continued exchanging strikes into a fifth consecutive day by July 16. Iranian strikes near tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on July 13 briefly pushed Bitcoin down to $61,750 before it recovered.
On Monday, Trump said the U.S. would likely take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The comment kept oil prices elevated and left broader markets cautious about a possible resurgence in inflation later this year. A selloff in chipmaking stocks added further pressure to risk appetite on Thursday. Bitcoin was still up about 1.6% for the week as of July 16.
Not Every Signal Points the Same Direction
Some market data points in a different direction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $4.13 billion in net outflows over the trailing 30 days, according to one technical analysis tracking the funds, suggesting institutional demand has yet to confirm the price recovery.
Several analysts described Bitcoin’s current move as a corrective bounce within a broader consolidation range rather than a confirmed trend reversal, noting the asset remains below key longer-term moving averages, including its 200-day EMA near $74,700 to $76,600.
