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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s net daily selling pressure fell from nearly 2,000 BTC in June to about 53 BTC a day in July, the calmest month of 2026 outside April.
- The weekly MACD shows divergence pointing to a possible reversal target near $73,500, though Bitcoin remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
- The current bounce appears driven more by derivatives positioning than spot buying, with spot cumulative volume delta still negative despite renewed ETF inflows.
Bitcoin is trading above $63,000 after rebounding from a pullback that began last weekend and extended into Monday, holding above the $60,000 level that has repeatedly acted as support this year. On-chain data shows the selling pressure that dominated the market in June has eased sharply, though analysts are divided on whether that is enough to confirm a genuine trend change.
Selling Pressure Has Sharply Eased, Glassnode Data Shows
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s net daily selling pressure averaged nearly 2,000 BTC in June and has slowed to about 53 BTC a day in July, the calmest month of 2026 outside of April. The drop reflects reduced trading volume across most chart timeframes since the start of the month.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the recovery from the year’s low near $57,700 is being driven mainly by derivatives traders rather than spot buyers. In a statement, he said:
“Demand for Bitcoin is recovering rapidly, though the growth is currently being driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market. At the same time, the situation in the spot market remains less positive.”
He added that prices could stay range-bound for months without a stronger return of spot buy-side liquidity.
Weekly Chart Shows Divergence Pattern, Analysts Say Confirmation Is Pending
Bitcoin’s weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has begun showing divergence, a pattern that has aligned with signals already visible on lower timeframes since price fell below $58,000 in late June. Several chart-based estimates place a confirmed reversal target near $73,500, a level that roughly aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement on the weekly chart, though Bitcoin would first need to clear the $70,000 psychological level.
Analysts caution that the signal remains preliminary. Divergence on a momentum indicator can precede either a genuine trend change or a temporary consolidation, and several chartists tracking the same move this month have described it as stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal, noting that price remains below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
Spot Demand Still Lags The Bounce
Bitcoin’s spot cumulative volume delta remains negative, which analysts cite as evidence that the current bounce is being driven more by derivatives positioning than by spot accumulation.
At the same time, long-term holders appear to be steadily transferring supply to new buyers rather than holding firm, a pattern that some analysts say is consistent with a market working through a bottoming process rather than one already in a confirmed uptrend.
Geopolitical Tensions And ETF Flows In Focus
Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran escalated over the weekend, pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns that lifted the U.S. Dollar Index. Bitcoin’s price held relatively steady through the escalation, a contrast with earlier flare-ups between the two countries in March and April, when similar tensions triggered sharper selloffs in the cryptocurrency.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also shown renewed inflows since early July after a period of heavier outflows in May and June. A confirmed return of broader bullish momentum would likely require Bitcoin to clear the $75,000 level, which would reopen discussion of a move back toward $100,000. That scenario depends on spot buyers re-entering in greater size than they have so far this month.
