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Kalshi has added India to its list of restricted jurisdictions, cutting off users in one of the world’s largest retail trading and gaming markets after New Delhi moved against online prediction platforms.
The move follows Indian government actions to block access to prediction market websites and warn users against trading on those platforms. It shows how local gambling and gaming rules can limit access to event-contract platforms outside the United States.
India Restriction Forces Kalshi Geofence
Kalshi’s restriction means users in India can no longer access the platform through normal channels. The company has joined other prediction market operators that have had to pull back from countries where regulators treat event contracts as betting or real-money gaming.
India’s position hardened after 2025 online gaming rules targeting real-money gaming and prediction-style platforms. The rules were framed around consumer harm, addiction risks and financial losses tied to online betting-style products.
MeitY Warning Raised Platform Pressure
The restriction also fits India’s wider internet enforcement approach. MeitY has warned VPN and technology intermediaries that they may lose safe-harbor protections if they fail to make reasonable efforts to block access to illegal betting and prediction sites.
That makes access restrictions harder for offshore prediction market platforms to ignore, even when the companies are regulated or based in other jurisdictions.
Spain and New Zealand Add Pressure
Kalshi’s India retreat adds to a longer list of markets where prediction platforms have faced access limits, gambling probes or outright blocks. Spain temporarily blocked Kalshi and Polymarket last month while investigating whether the companies operated without required gambling licenses.
New Zealand has also treated prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket as prohibited under gambling laws. That pressure is changing how prediction market firms operate. Platforms built around fast cross-border access now need tighter geofencing, user checks and market-by-market compliance decisions.
US Status Does Not Travel Abroad
Kalshi’s challenge is that its regulated status in the US does not travel cleanly into foreign markets. Countries can still treat event contracts as gambling, gaming or banned real-money activity under local law.
The immediate effect is that another large jurisdiction is now outside Kalshi’s addressable user base while prediction market rules continue to fragment across borders.
