Image credit: Shutterstock
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket odds on the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have fallen from 74% to 47% over the past month.
- The White House is meeting with law enforcement groups Wednesday over unresolved illicit-finance and ethics objections blocking Senate floor consideration.
- Over 200 crypto firms and groups have urged Senate leaders to schedule a floor vote, while several Democrats have withheld support pending resolution of key disputes.
Prediction market odds for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing into law in 2026 have fallen to 47% on Polymarket, down from 74% a month ago. White House officials are scheduled to meet with law enforcement groups Wednesday over unresolved objections to ethics and illicit-finance provisions in the bill.
Senate Committee Vote Advances Bill, but 60-Vote Threshold Remains
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a 15-9 vote on May 14, with two Democrats crossing over to support it. The bill still requires 60 votes to clear the full Senate floor.
Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn cut his 2026 passage estimate to 60% from 75% on June 5, citing a tightening Senate calendar. Polymarket odds have fallen in parallel, dropping from 74% to 47% over the same period as the legislative window narrows ahead of the August recess.
White House to Host Law Enforcement Groups Over Illicit-Finance Objections
Administration officials are scheduled to host law enforcement groups at the White House on Wednesday, according to journalist Eleanor Terrett, who reported the meeting citing three sources familiar with the matter.
At issue are developer protections drawn from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which critics argue could weaken efforts to combat money laundering and other illicit finance.
“The issue, along with ethics, remains one of the major sticking points that must be resolved before lawmakers can bring the bill to the Senate floor,” Terrett wrote.
Democratic Support Conditional on Ethics and Law Enforcement Disputes
Several Democrats have tied their support to the resolution of those concerns. Senator Angela Alsobrooks has withheld her support for a floor vote until negotiators settle the ethics provisions and remaining disputes.
Terrett also reported that several Democrats have signaled they will not back the legislation unless law enforcement believes its concerns have been adequately addressed.
Over 200 Crypto Firms and Groups Press Senate Leaders for a Vote
At the same time, the crypto industry is pushing for the bill to be scheduled. More than 200 companies and groups urged Senate leaders to bring the bill to the floor in a June 7 letter. Signatories include the Blockchain Association, Stand With Crypto, the Crypto Council for Innovation, and the Digital Chamber. The bill’s path to a Senate floor vote remains unresolved ahead of the August recess.
