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Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies moved higher as traders reacted to improving odds of a near-term U.S.-Iran deal, easing some geopolitical pressure tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin climbed back toward $77,000 after rebounding from the mid-$74,000 range, while oil fell and Gulf equities rose as traders priced in a lower risk of prolonged disruption at Hormuz.
Polymarket Deal Odds Jump From 14% to 37%
The move followed President Donald Trump’s statement that a framework for an Iran deal had been “largely negotiated.” Trump said any agreement remained subject to finalization. The proposed arrangement is tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump later said there was “no rush” and that the U.S. blockade would remain until a final agreement is completed and certified.
Prediction markets reflected the risk-on shift. Polymarket traders raised the implied probability of a permanent U.S.-Iran deal this month to 37%, up from 14% on Friday. Longer-dated odds also moved higher, with market summaries citing higher probabilities for a deal by early June and by the end of July.
Oil Falls as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Rise
Oil prices fell as the market priced in a lower chance of prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. That matters because Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
Any credible path toward reopening it could reduce pressure on crude prices and ease some inflation concerns. Gulf equities rallied on expectations of a deal, while renewed diplomatic optimism pressured the dollar and crude as traders bet de-escalation could ease energy-market stress.
BTC Rebound Still Needs Iran Deal Confirmation
The crypto rebound remains tied to probabilities, not a completed agreement. For Bitcoin, that makes the move fragile. A confirmed deal and further declines in oil could support another push higher as macro pressure eases.
If talks stall or military escalation resumes, the same geopolitical risk that pushed crypto lower over the weekend could return quickly.
For now, Bitcoin has recovered from the latest conflict-driven selloff. The next test is whether diplomatic progress becomes a finalized agreement, or whether BTC’s rebound fades as traders reassess the risk around Iran and Hormuz.
