Image Credit: Citibank
Key Takeaways
- Citi projects the tokenized real-world asset market will reach $5.5 trillion by 2030, with DTCC, Nasdaq, and Intercontinental Exchange already embedding tokenization into core trading infrastructure.
- Stablecoin growth is expected to hit $1.9 trillion by 2030 and could generate approximately $1 trillion in new demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as issuers back their products with government debt.
- Citi expects legacy and digital financial systems to run in parallel for years, benefiting large banks that control both underlying assets and digital payment rails.
Citi is projecting that the market for tokenized real-world assets will expand from $17 billion today to $5.5 trillion by 2030, according to a new report shared with CoinDesk ahead of the Proof of Talk conference in Paris. The bank’s base forecast sits at $5.5 trillion, with a range spanning from $2.7 trillion on the low end to $8.2 trillion under a bullish adoption scenario.
DTCC, Nasdaq, and Intercontinental Exchange Are Embedding Tokenization Into Core Trading Infrastructure
The report, titled “Tokenization 2030: Wall Street On-Chain,” identifies three primary forces behind what Citi calls a major turning point for capital markets: direct integration by major infrastructure providers, the expansion of digital cash instruments, and regulatory clarity.
On the infrastructure front, the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation announced in early May that it would begin limited production trades of tokenized securities in July, with a broader platform launch scheduled for October.
Nasdaq is developing a framework to allow companies to issue blockchain-based shares, with a potential launch as early as 2027. The exchange has also received regulatory approval to issue and trade certain stocks in digital on-chain form, according to the report. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, has also announced plans for tokenized stocks.
“When DTCC and the NYSE embed tokenization into capital markets, this marks a tipping point,” Citi states in the report.
Stablecoin Growth Expected to Generate Up to $1 Trillion in U.S. Treasury Demand
The second driver Citi identifies is the expansion of digital cash instruments, which the bank says provides the mechanism for instant settlement. Citi projects standard stablecoins will reach a $1.9 trillion market by 2030 and, alongside digital bank deposits, would enable simultaneous asset and cash transfers.
The bank estimates that stablecoin growth alone could generate approximately $1 trillion in new demand for U.S. government bonds, as stablecoin issuers back their products with those instruments.
On the regulatory front, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act on May 14 with a 15-to-9 bipartisan vote, ending a four-month stall and sending the legislation to a full Senate vote, a development Citi cites as a key enabling condition for its projections.
Citi Expects Tokenization to Concentrate in Public Markets, Not Private Credit
Citi’s projections focus on mainstream public markets rather than private ones. The bank assumes that 10% of the U.S. Treasury bill market and 3% of the U.S. public stock market will be tokenized by 2030. If 10% of everyday U.S. investors migrate to digital trading platforms, Citi estimates that would produce $2.6 trillion in demand for tokenized equities.
By contrast, private credit and private equity are each expected to reach only $100 billion globally by 2030. Citi attributed the lower private market projections to the relative illiquidity and slower pace of adoption in those segments.
Legacy and Digital Systems Will Run in Parallel Before Full Transition, Citi Says
Citi cautions that the transition will not be immediate, comparing the expected migration to the rollout of electronic toll collection systems such as E-ZPass. Toll roads initially operated parallel cash and automated lanes, adding cost and complexity before full automation took hold, and the bank says a similar coexistence of legacy and digital financial infrastructure should be expected for some years.
According to Citi, this parallel period will benefit what it calls “structural orchestrators”. These are large banks and investment firms that control both the underlying assets and the digital payment rails, enabling them to settle entire trades internally without routing through third-party systems.
