Bitcoin Stalls at 200-Day Moving Average, Analysts Warn of Further Downside

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Bitcoin has hit resistance at its 200-day moving average and may face further downside, according to a Wednesday note from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm said demand has flipped into contraction and flagged a parallel to a 2022 pattern that preceded a significant price decline. 

According to CryptoQuant, the move mirrors a March 2022 pattern in which a 43% rally stalled at the same level before prices fell sharply in the months that followed. “Overall, Bitcoin demand has flipped into contraction,” a CryptoQuant analyst wrote.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index Has Fallen to Extreme Bearish Territory at 20

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has declined from 40 back to a reading of 20, which the firm characterized as extreme bearish territory, “as stalling stablecoin liquidity, and negative price momentum simultaneously eroded the composite signal.” 

The firm said the current score is consistent with deep bear market readings recorded in February and March, when prices declined to $60,000, and historically “has preceded either further price weakness or extended consolidation.”

CryptoQuant Identifies $70,000 as Key On-Chain Support Level if Correction Continues 

CryptoQuant identified $70,000 as the primary on-chain support target if the correction continues, describing it as the traders’ on-chain realized price. CryptoQuant noted that this level has functioned as a ‘precise inflection point’ in what it characterized as the current bear market cycle. A break below $70,000 and back into the $60,000 zone could result in new bear market lows, they added.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $77,850, roughly 11% above CryptoQuant’s $70,000 support target. The gap is meaningful but not large enough to dismiss the level as a remote scenario, particularly given that Bitcoin has already shed more than 38% from its all-time high of $126,025 recorded in October 2025. 

Glassnode Warns of Likely Continued Correction; Swissblock Sees Consolidation as Base Case 

Glassnode reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin has reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,300 but failed to sustain above it. Glassnode said the correction from recent highs is likely to continue if previous cycle patterns repeat, a scenario it described as the higher-probability outcome until price demonstrates sustained follow-through. Glassnode said:

“Any deeper correction from current levels would therefore reframe the recent rally as a local top within the ongoing bear market, a structure that has recurred multiple times in prior cycles and remains the higher probability outcome until price demonstrates sustained follow-through.”  

Swissblock reported on Thursday that Bitcoin momentum has faded from full maximum momentum but remained cautiously bullish, stating that as long as momentum does not degrade significantly, “the base case is consolidation, not breakdown.”

Bitcoin Tapped $78,000 Twice During Thursday Asian Session While Ether Remained Below $2,150

Bitcoin climbed 1.7% over the past 24 hours, rising from $76,600 to tap $78,000 twice during the Thursday morning Asian trading session. Analysts noted that $78,000 represents a resistance zone that would need to be cleared for bitcoin to retest $80,000. Ether prices mirrored the move but were trading below $2,150 at the time of writing.