Bitcoin Holds Near $67,500 as Trump Signals Iran Deal Progress, but Hormuz Stays Restricted

Bitcoin traded near $67,500 on March 31 after Donald Trump said U.S.-Iran talks had been “very good and productive” and that a deal would “probably” be reached soon. The message on Truth Social was interpreted by markets as easing immediate conflict risk, but the Strait of Hormuz was still operating under a severely restricted transit environment, leaving the energy shock in place.

Trump Signalled Progress, but Hormuz Has Not Reopened

Trump said the United States and Iran had held productive conversations over the previous two days and suggested a deal could be close. The statement gave markets a diplomatic signal after weeks of conflict-driven pressure.

The shipping picture remained far more constrained. Official maritime advisories continued to describe the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters as a heightened risk environment with sharply reduced traffic volumes, active threat conditions, and a severely restricted transit environment.

Markets are still weighing both messages at once. Diplomacy has improved, but the main oil chokepoint is not functioning normally.

Fed Officials Keep Focus on Inflation as Energy Shock Persists

The energy shock is now feeding directly into central bank concerns. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said last week that the balance of risks had shifted toward inflation due to Iran-related tensions.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr also warned that policymakers needed to remain vigilant against rising inflation expectations. Those comments kept the market’s focus on prices and policy rather than on a quick return to easier financial conditions.

Higher energy prices can contribute to tighter financial conditions and reduce risk appetite. That keeps Bitcoin exposed to the same inflation and rate pressure affecting broader markets.

Bitcoin Steadies Above $65,200 while Equity ETFs Lag

Bitcoin traded around $67,319 on Tuesday after recovering from a move below $65,200 earlier in the week. Ether held near $2,054. U.S. equity ETFs were weaker on the day. SPY was down about 0.3%, while QQQ fell about 0.8%.

Crypto still looked steadier than equities, even without a clean upside break. Bitcoin has spent most of the conflict holding inside a broad range rather than extending the slide seen in parts of the stock market.

Bitcoin Enters April With Oil and Rates Still Driving Price Action

The latest diplomatic signal reduced some headline risk, but it did not reopen Hormuz or remove the inflation pressure tied to energy markets. Bitcoin is entering April inside the same broad range that has defined trading through the conflict, with buyers still appearing on dips but no decisive breakout in place.

Until Hormuz normalises, energy prices and rate expectations remain the dominant macro headwinds.