US Soldier Charged Over $400K Profit From Polymarket Maduro Bets

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Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have charged US Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information to profit on Polymarket bets tied to Nicolás Maduro. The Justice Department said Van Dyke allegedly made about $409,881 trading Venezuela- and Maduro-related event contracts after gaining access to sensitive details through his role in the mission.

The case shows prosecutors and regulators applying insider-trading theories to prediction-market contracts. Prosecutors are not treating the conduct as a gambling issue. They are treating it as commodities fraud and theft of nonpublic government information tied to binary event contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also filed a parallel civil complaint, marking the first insider trading case involving a prediction market.

Prosecutors Say He Placed Bets Before the Raid

According to the indictment, Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve from around December 8 2025, through at least early January 2026. Prosecutors say he created a Polymarket account on December 26 and placed about 13 “yes” bets between December 27 and the evening of January 2 on outcomes including “US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026” and “Maduro out by January 31, 2026.” He allegedly staked about $33,034 while holding classified, nonpublic information.

Maduro was captured in the early hours of January 3, and President Donald Trump announced the operation later that day. After that, several related Polymarket contracts resolved to “yes,” and prosecutors say Van Dyke cashed out with more than $400,000 in profit. The indictment also says he exited another Venezuela invasion market before it was later resolved to “no,” avoiding losses there.

The Alleged Cover-Up Adds to the Case

Prosecutors say Van Dyke withdrew most of the proceeds from Polymarket on the day of the operation, sent about 437,859 USDC.e to a foreign crypto vault, later moved roughly $444,209 into a crypto exchange account, and then deposited that money into a newly opened brokerage account. As of April 21, the indictment says that the brokerage account still held about $415,511 tied to the Polymarket trades.

The Justice Department says Van Dyke then tried to hide the trail by asking Polymarket to delete his account and by changing the email linked to his crypto exchange account. He now faces charges including unlawful use of confidential government information, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and an unlawful monetary transaction. Prosecutors said Polymarket cooperated with investigators.

The Case Deepens Insider-Trading Scrutiny of Prediction Markets

For prediction platforms, the immediate issue is not just optics. The case gives prosecutors and regulators a concrete example of how insider-trading theories can be applied to prediction-market contracts tied to military operations and geopolitics. That could matter well beyond Polymarket as US agencies and state officials continue fighting over who should control the fast-growing prediction market sector.