Bitcoin Outperforms Stocks Amid Iran Tensions

Bitcoin edged back toward $66,500 on Monday, recovering from a turbulent weekend that saw geopolitical tensions in Iran and roughly $300 million in liquidations ripple through crypto markets. While risk-off sentiment pressured equities and boosted oil prices, select DeFi tokens stood out with notable gains.

Market Overview

BTC is trading near $66,500, up 1.1% since midnight UTC and more than 5% above its weekend low around $63,000. The move places bitcoin near the midpoint of a range it has largely occupied since early February, following swings from $62,500 to $70,000 over the past week.

The volatility coincided with strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces that assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, sparking fears of disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. According to trading firm QCP, the event triggered approximately $300 million in long liquidations, though analysts noted that the relatively modest scale suggested markets had already priced in potential shocks.

Traditional safe-haven assets gained ground amid the uncertainty. Gold and silver climbed to one-month highs, while crude oil surged 13% to $82 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since July 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures softened, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively, since midnight UTC.

Crypto markets largely absorbed the weekend shocks while U.S. equities were offline. Bitcoin, in particular, showed relative stability as trading resumed.

Derivatives Insight

Data suggest a measured reaction to the geopolitical events. Total open interest in crypto futures dipped 2% to $93.78 billion, remaining above recent lows of $92.40 billion. Over the past 24 hours, more than $300 million in leveraged positions were liquidated on centralised exchanges, mainly bullish bets. Funding rates for perpetual contracts on bitcoin and ether remain flat to slightly negative, indicating mild bearish sentiment.

Options markets also show caution without panic. The 30-day implied volatility index for Bitcoin holds near 58.8%, within last week’s range. Ether’s volatility trends similarly. 

On Deribit, short-dated bitcoin puts trade at an 8–10% premium to calls, reflecting demand for downside protection. The $60,000 put remains the most actively traded contract, with block trades highlighting interest in structured put spreads.

Token-Level Performance

Most altcoins tracked bitcoin’s recovery, but several DeFi projects outperformed. MORPHO, a lending protocol, extended its rally with a 5% gain over 24 hours and 2.6% since midnight UTC. Other DeFi tokens, including JUP, AAVE, and LDO, also posted gains, suggesting speculative interest persists despite a rotation toward traditional safe havens.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token jumped 29% on Saturday, breaking February’s downward trend, though it eased 3.8% on Monday, holding above the key $30 support. Conversely, WLFI, a DeFi token associated with Donald Trump’s family, continued its decline, down 2.5% since midnight UTC and more than 44% since mid-January, reflecting a pattern of lower highs and lows.

Within CoinDesk’s sector benchmarks, the DeFi Select (DFX) Index was the only index in positive territory over the past 24 hours. The weakest performers included the Computing Select Index (CPUS) and Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), down 1.87% and 1.71%, respectively.