XRP at Risk: $650M Sell Pressure Signals Possible Drop

XRP is facing renewed market pressure as analysts point to a potential $650 million wave of sell-side activity that could weigh heavily on its price in the near term. 

XRP Faces Overhead Resistance

This concern stems from a combination of technical indicators and on-chain data suggesting that a significant portion of XRP holders may be preparing to exit their positions.

Saturday and Sunday chart patterns have drawn particular attention, where XRP’s 13% rally, $1.43, ran into a resistance wall at $1.39-$1.43, causing it to retrace to the current price of $1.34. The cost-basis distribution heatmap indicates a significant concentration of XRP in this range, with about 1.48 billion tokens purchased there over the past 30 days.

XRP has struggled to maintain key support levels, with price action showing lower highs and weakening momentum. Traders often interpret these patterns as signs of a possible continuation of a downward trend. If support zones fail to hold, projections indicate that XRP could fall below the psychologically important $1 level.

Geopolitical Shock Waves Hit XRP

Geopolitical tensions have once again rippled through global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency sector has not been spared. Blockchain tracking data showed that approximately 472 million XRP, worth about $650 million,  were moved into wallets associated with Binance.

The movement occurred during a period of heightened uncertainty across traditional and digital markets, as investors reacted to unfolding international events. XRP, the native token associated with the payments-focused company Ripple, has historically been sensitive to large exchange inflows.

Traders often monitor these flows closely, as substantial deposits can signal potential increases in supply on the open market. It is important to note, however, that exchange inflows do not automatically translate into immediate selling. Tokens may be moved for various reasons, including internal wallet management, liquidity provisioning, or over-the-counter settlement processes. Without direct confirmation from the parties involved, the intent behind the transfer remains unclear.

Price Reaction and Market Impact

Following news of the transfer, XRP experienced heightened trading activity. Short-term price fluctuations reflected a cautious market tone, though the token did not immediately collapse. Instead, price movements appeared consistent with the broader crypto market’s volatility at the time. XRP’s balance on Binance has gone from 2.55 to 2.73 billion in mid-February. 

A potential drop below $1 can trigger additional selling, especially when broader sentiment is already fragile, and investors are seeking to limit losses. XRP’s trading volumes remain robust compared to many alternative cryptocurrencies. XRP’s price trajectory is often influenced by overall market conditions and often does not move in isolation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels have hovered near neutral or slightly bearish territory, suggesting limited upward momentum. Meanwhile, moving averages have begun to converge in ways that sometimes precede downward breakouts.

Data from CoinGlass shows $5.37 million XRP liquidation over 24 hours, with a total of $3.70 million.  Open interest stands at $2.14 billion, while combined futures and spot trading volume reached about $5.2 billion during the same period.