XRP Risks 25% Drop as Bearish Signals Intensify

XRP is flashing renewed downside risk after sliding nearly 25% over the past month, with technical indicators suggesting the correction may not be over yet. The token remains under pressure amid broader market weakness led by Bitcoin’s breakdown below key support levels.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading below $1.50 and sits roughly 38% below its yearly highs, reflecting fading bullish momentum.

Bearish Technical Structure Remains in Control

XRP’s daily chart continues to reflect a weakening trend, with price action holding firmly below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Trading beneath all three major averages typically signals sustained downside pressure and confirms that bulls have yet to regain meaningful control of the trend.

Short-term momentum has also deteriorated. The 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, forming a bearish crossover that often precedes additional downside continuation. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains in negative territory, suggesting capital outflows are outweighing inflows and pointing to reduced accumulation from larger market participants.

Adding to the cautious outlook, XRP has continued to print lower highs during recent recovery attempts, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment across the crypto market. Each bounce has struggled to maintain follow-through, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant on rallies.

Although XRP is currently trading within a descending broadening wedge, a formation sometimes associated with eventual bullish reversals, the prevailing technical signals lean decisively bearish. For now, downward momentum and weakening participation appear stronger than any early signs of a structural turnaround.

$1.17 Target in Focus

If downside momentum continues, XRP could revisit the lower trendline of its pattern near $1.17.

That would represent:

• Approximately 25% downside from current levels
• A key test of structural support before any meaningful recovery attempt

Failure to hold that level could open the door to deeper retracement.

Futures Market Shows Cooling Speculation

Derivative data supports the cautious outlook. XRP futures open interest has dropped significantly:

• Open interest declined to $2.46 billion
• Down nearly 50% from $4.55 billion in early January

Falling open interest suggests traders are scaling back leveraged bets, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing the risk of sharp volatility if selling accelerates.

XRP’s technical structure remains fragile. With macro headwinds, declining futures participation, and price trading below major moving averages, the short-term bias leans bearish.

Unless bulls reclaim key resistance levels and rebuild momentum, a retest of the $1.17 zone remains a realistic scenario in the coming sessions.