Bitcoin Halving Impact Fades as Demand Takes Center Stage
According to reports, the Open Interest in Bitcoin is now 30 times higher than it was 11 days before the 2020 Bitcoin halving.
PlanB, one of cryptocurrency s famed anonymous analysts believes that it’s now time for Bitcoin price to start heading upwards. Using a chart mapping historic data alongside his own Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, the analyst pointed out that Bitcoin is poised for a rally:
S2F version 1 update. This is the 2019 time series model on historical BTC data only (no gold, silver, diamonds, real estate data used). You see the jump in model value at the halving (white line) and corresponding drop in S2F multiple / model error (white dots). Time to go up. pic.twitter.com/qIjiXfbmCx
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 14, 2020
Bitcoin Price Prediction Model: S2F Version 1 Update
PlanB’s model to analyse the historic and current data of Bitcoin’s movement differs from the updated Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) model, which includes the analyses of macro factors. The updated model also considers the “phases” in Bitcoin’s shift to become a well-established alternate asset. Considering the trend after the previous Bitcoin halving in 2020, it appears the price of Bitcoin is set to go in the same way.
This predicted trend has been echoed by cryptocurrency analyst Michael Van de Poppe, who compares the Bitcoin bull run 18 months after the Bitcoin halving in 2016:
If you’d like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016.
Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods.
In 2016, several were seen.
In 2020, 2021, it’s likely we’ll see that too.
Bullish.$BTC pic.twitter.com/LYcNKXMasj
— Crypto Michaël (@CryptoMichNL) September 14, 2020
Funds from where: How Bitcoin might surge
PlanB suggested that the funds needed to skyrocket Bitcoin price will come from other assets and investors looking to hedge against the decreasing dollar values. Quoting a blog, he said:
“silver, gold, countries with negative interest rates, countries with predatory governments, billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors.”
The concept of looking to Bitcoin as a safe haven against the US dollar and other national currencies is not a new one. A common theme in the market is the inverse correlation between the dollar and other assets such as Bitcoin and gold. If investors look to pull their funds from dollar investment, it is very plausible that they will look to Bitcoin as an alternative option.