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Global Bitcoin adoption is predicted to hit 10% of the world’s population by the year 2030, according to a report by blockchain intelligence firm Blockware Intelligence.
— Blockware Solutions (@BlockwareTeam) June 10, 2022
Considering nine other disruptive technologies, that shifted the ways industries are run, Blockware’s prediction looks at the adoption rate and curves in comparison to blockchain. Looking at the historic trends of automobiles, radio, landlines, electric power, smartphones, tablets, mobile phones, the internet, and social media, Blockware’s report charts the adoption by considering the rate of early adoption, leading to the early majority using the technology, followed by the late majority with the laggards following last in the processes of adoption. According to the report:
“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential s-curve pattern, but the speed of adoption has continued to accelerate over time. Newer, network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”
Using the average of these historic adoption curves and Bitcoin’s current adoption trend, the report came to the estimation that it will break past 10% global adoption by the year 2030.
The rapid rate of Bitcoin adoption
In its report, Blockware suggests that Bitcoin adoption is set to reach market saturation much quicker than the other disruptive technologies because of the features it presents, such as the monetary opportunities and financial incentive to adopt , especially in the current macro climate.
“Bitcoin is unique from past technology due to the direct monetary incentive of being an early consumer… For entrepreneurs there were direct and indirect monetary incentives to adopting new technologies. From a consumer perspective, past technologies had convenience/efficiency related incentives to adopt them… However, it is difficult to measure the direct monetary value gained by being an early consumer of some of these technologies. With Bitcoin direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.”
While Blockware’s prediction is founded on six months’ research into historic data of digital and disruptive adoption, it is also noted that the report is not intended as investment advice. While this is the case, Blockware’s report also states that there is a high probability that the global adoption of Bitcoin will likely lead to an increase in Bitcoin’s price as the cryptocurrency becomes more in demand with its capped supply limited to 21 million BTC ever to be mined.
“The general trend is clear; there is a high probability that Bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly into the future and thus so will price.”