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Well, that escalated quickly.
If there was any doubt which way the market was headed, it was quieted during the last week. Bitcoin put in a gruesome seven days, losing more than 25% of its value and falling as far as the $3,600s before recovering.
Since we know the market is dismal, instead of my usual BTC vs. Alt charts I put together a sentiment chart of the entire crypto market (as seen by the 150+ influencers I follow) for the last two months for some perspective:
It’s been a while coming, and we’ve discussed that here before, but we really haven’t seen this level of negative sentiment in a long time.
Have we bottomed? Perhaps, but it’s a tough market to trade in for me until I see some confidence come back. If this is indeed a capitulation and a bottom, it’s not going to be instantaneous.
If you’ve been on social media this week, you can see the difference. People are genuinely in despair about the state of the market, and some that have ridden out the entire bear market were finally throwing in the towel.
The thing that gives me the most pause? A lack of volume from influencers. When the bottom fell out, people went quiet. I haven’t logged this low an overall volume since I started doing this, and until that starts changing, it’s tough to see market sentiment turning around.
There’s always money to be made somewhere, but if you jump in, be careful. It’ll probably be uncertain seas for a while.
The Top Alts
Normally I’d warn of alt coins that saw serious gains this week and could be headed for a drop despite high sentiment. But that’s not necessary. Nearly every coin took a sizable hit this week.
In fact, my analysis showed there were only five coins or tokens that really saw a net positive sentiment and strong volume of mentions in the last week.
These coins/tokens had the highest power rating in my analysis this week. The power rating is a weighted calculation taking into account sentiment, volume and the number of unique users who mentioned a coin. Generally, I eliminate any coins mentioned by less than 3 individual people as I don’t feel it would be representative of a trend.
The site I use to convert my tables to HTML is down at the moment, so I’ll try to add this later today. Stay tuned.
Each week, I scrape the Twitter accounts of some of the crypto world’s favorite influencers, traders and TA folk. I run a sentiment analysis to see which coins they are mentioning positively, neutrally and which they are mentioning in a negative light.
I also take in data on unique influencers, retweets, favorites, volume and strength of feeling in sentiment.
I calculate power by through a weighted formula that takes into consideration volume, number of unique influencers and sentiment. The higher the score, the better, the lower the worse.
This isn’t financial advice, just my own way of trying to make sense of what’s out there. And as with most things, the more data I collect, hopefully, the more interesting it’ll be. This is a work in progress. Please leave suggestions on how to make it better. I imagine if I keep up with it, I’ll be able to expand a bunch of the analysis, but I wanted to start somew