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I’m seeing some bullish conviction on the 12hr chart which makes me believe there could be a breakout move by BTC . The P-SAR has been printing positive momentum for the past 5 days now and counting. Let’s take a look at supports and resistances that could support such a breakout.
1 – We have not traded below the 38.2% at $3,625 since Feb 17th. Prices retraced near this level a couple of times and bulls bought up this area of the chart showing demand on any dips.
2 – Prices held the 200 Week MA on 5 separate weekly candles. This is our last line of defence from a bulls standpoint and held the line.
3 – Momentum indicators where RSI is holding above 50 on the 12-hour as well as daily timeframe. Stochastic is rolling out of overbought conditions, but price action is holding.
4 – All the positive fundamentals news have not moved markets, however, this cannot last forever. At some point, there will be a trigger fundamentally and prices will begin to support fundamental valuations.
5 – I don’t really trade on patterns, but if you do there is the Adam and Eve everyone and their grandma has been talking about.
1 – 61.8% at $3,925 has been formidable resistance. This will be BTC’s first stepping stone getting out of this dumb zone we have been trading inside the past two weeks.
2 – Everyone is talking about we won’t see higher prices due to low volume + low volatility. Well, that presents the chicken and the egg scenario. You won’t see higher volumes and volatility until BTC starts to break out the dumb zone and start climbing the Fibonacci ladder to more interesting resistances. So there’s that.
3 – Watch the 78.6% and more closely the 100% fib extensions. If we are able to get out of the 100% zone this is extremely bullish.
4 – The EMA 200 Day and 200 Day will be major resistance. Bears will guard this zone ($4,700-5,000) with their lives. Much the same way bulls are defending the 200 Week MA.
5 – Moving from left to right you can see BTC has been rejected 4x at major resistance. We need to clear these to start an uptrend with some confidence.
If you do not hold any BTC positions I’d recommend waiting for a breakout on the 61.8% level. If BTC takes a nose dive we’ll look for new trade setups but I do not recommend having naked orders sitting on the order book at any level.