As part of its global expansion, Coinbase has announced that it has been granted regulatory approval from the Netherlands' national bank.
— CNBC Futures Now (@CNBCFuturesNow) September 13, 2018
The oldest joke on Crypto Twitter is that any call made by CNBC is the best counter-indicator out there.
But is that true?
In the short term, I’ve generally found it funny, and remarkable, that this seems to be true more often than not. A tweet from the financial network goes out, and within six hours the price of $BTC does the opposite.
But I was actually curious if I just wanted this to be true, or if it actually was. So let’s find out!
I took the seven of the most recent calls CNBC’s Fast Money or Futures Now has made on crypto and stacked them against the actual market performance. Let’s see if they’re up to snuff.
7. Aug 16: $BTC to $7,000 USD
— CNBC Futures Now (@CNBCFuturesNow) August 16, 2018
The call was that Bitcoin would break a target of $7,000 by September 1, and it did. On August 28, the price rose above $7,000 USD and climbed through the end of the month.
6. Aug 21: $BTC to $5,900 USD
— CNBC Futures Now (@CNBCFuturesNow) August 21, 2018
Different analyst, days later. The call was for $BTC to hit $5,900 USD by September 1. Nope. $BTC climbed through the end of the month and hasn’t broken $6,000 USD since.
5. Aug 25: $BTC Explosive growth
This little-talked about correlation suggests bitcoin may end year ‘explosively higher’: Tom Lee https://t.co/xye0Qmmvsz
— Trading Nation (@TradingNation) August 25, 2018
Giving the pass to Tom Lee for now as he gives his call for an explosive turnaround until the end of the year. We’ll put this in the tie column.
4. Aug. 28: $BTC to $8,000 USD
— CNBC Futures Now (@CNBCFuturesNow) August 28, 2018
Maybe Bob will blame the graphics department on this, but banking on a $1K USD rise in $BTC to close out Aug. was ultra ambitious. Sorry buddy.
3. Aug. 29: $BTC to $10,000 USD
— CNBC’s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) August 29, 2018
*I’m giving Michael Moro a pass here because he left himself an out. He said the bulls needed to defend $7,150 USD for the next week for this to happen. Almost exactly one week later, the bottom fell out.
That said, CNBC still gets a fail because they rolled with the headline “$10K USD coming soon. Here’s why.” Nope, sorry.
2. Aug. 30: $BTC to $7,820 USD
— CNBC Futures Now (@CNBCFuturesNow) September 4, 2018
This trade got stopped out, plain and simple.
1. Sept. 6: $BTC to $7,250 USD
— CNBC Futures Now (@CNBCFuturesNow) September 6, 2018
If you rolled with this, you’re still alive for the moment. $BTC went considerably lower, presenting a better buy opportunity, but it also hasn’t been stopped out just yet.
CNBC’s record: 1-4-2
That’s….not great. It seems like when they have folks on to give meaningful analysis, it could be pretty helpful to people in the long-term. But when CNBC’s analysts play the short game (at least recently) it gets ugly quick.
Best counter-indicator out there? I’m willing to give them a chance to redeem themselves. I’ll check back in a month and see how they’ve done since. Maybe take their calls with a grain of salt in the meantime.